The JF Tobias February Market Decode has been released, containing all the latest JF Tobias insight and analysis on fine wine market performance. It remains the best independent analysis, and helps our clients to stay up to date with what is happening in the fine wine market, and understand fine wine market performance.
- 31% increase in people looking to sell fine wine, against last month
- Enquiries to Sell Totaling: £2,675,883 submitted to JF Tobias in the past month
- HK sale share recedes by 1%, UK by 4%, USA sale share increases by 4%,
- Positive market speculation leaves investors unmoved
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Despite Positive News Flow, the Market Remains Bearish
March was always a month of key deadlines. However, these deadlines have not been as decisive as hoped. Despite positive news-flow with both the Trade War and Brexit, a deal looking likely in both cases, there is a sense that fine wine market sentiment is sick of speculation, and remains bearish.
This extends to investors, who continue to shift wines out of their holdings—positive speculation not enough for them to hold through the volatility—with the upward trend in Sterling, as predicted, placing further downward pressure on wine prices.
At JF Tobias we believe the current upside momentum in Sterling will extend further across the short-term, as will the downward pressure on wine prices. Optimism with both Brexit and the Trade War has not shifted demand significantly enough to mitigate this.
Trade War Optimism Fails to Affect HK Sentiment
Whilst the wind is blowing in favour of a trade deal between the US and China, February was a slow month. Both prices and demand softened further.
Chinese markets are still cautious—Hong Kong’s sale share actually dropped 1% on last month. Until a trade deal is confirmed, demand from mainland China is not expected to increase significantly, and so HK remains bearish.
China’s parliament also kicked off its annual meeting on March 5, and ratified the 300 billion stimulus package in tax cuts we reported last month. Whilst a positive measure, it also confirms fears over their slowing economy; they warned China “must be fully prepared for a tough struggle.” Akin to saying fine wine must be prepared for a struggle.
First Growth and Top Burgundy Prices Tested Further
With First Growths leading the downward price trend, such volatility is testing the high market prices the top brands command. The prices for these have to be very attractive, as merchants are worried about taking too much of a risk position, with prices falling as they are. Instead, clients are looking towards better value buys, such as the Second Growths.
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At JF Tobias, we pride ourselves on being the best independent port of call in the fine wine market. If you have any questions about the market report, or would like to talk to someone regarding it, please contact us, and a member of the team will be delighted to assist.
