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Fine Wine Market Report: June 2019 Market Decode

The JF Tobias June Market Decode has been released, containing all the latest JF Tobias insight and analysis on fine wine market performance. It remains the best independent analysis, and helps our clients to stay up to date with what is happening in the fine wine market, and understand fine wine market performance.

  • Marginal 1% increase in people looking to sell fine wine, against last month
  • Enquiries to sell totaling: £1,624,112 submitted to JF Tobias in the past month
  • HK sale share recedes by 3%, UK sale share increases by 2%, US by 6%
  • US-China Trade war continues to affect sentiment

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June Market Decode

Sterling Pressured as Hard Brexiteers Emboldened

With Teresa May having set out a departure date, concerns have risen that she is likely to be succeeded by a Eurosceptic leader, potentially increasing the chances of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. Those concerns have pulled the rug from under the pound, prompting the currency to weaken dramatically against the euro and dollar, having now lost ground for four straight weeks.

Whilst a weak pound is good news for the UK wine market, as stock becomes cheaper to overseas market and buoys interest, it is currently the proxy for a ‘no-deal’ scenario, and set against the backdrop of a Sino-US Trade War escalating dramatically. Whilst demand from Asia, and thus Hong Kong, has remained fairly steady, the double risk of an appreciating sterling and weakening Yuan remain real threats.

Appreciating Sterling Remains a Threat

At JF Tobias, we believe markets are assigning too high a probability to a ‘no-deal’ scenario. Were a deal to be reached the upside risk of sterling would be significant. Were this to come into play, it would no doubt further weaken demand from Asia and Hong Kong, prices falling further as a result.


CNY weakens significantly against HKD

There are worries internationally that as trade tensions prevail, weaker links may be exposed and trigger problems such as those that caused the 1997 Asia financial crisis. With the fine wine market so highly globalised, any weakening demand from Asia will have direct and negative consequences on UK prices.

Whilst a weak sterling has proved a tailwind to Asian trade heading into June, the weakening of the Chinese Yuan may well yet form a headwind, with HK sale share receding slightly on last month in response.


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June Market Decode

At JF Tobias, we pride ourselves on being the best independent port of call in the fine wine market. If you have any questions about the market report, or would like to talk to someone regarding it, please contact us, and a member of the team will be delighted to assist.

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JF Tobias