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Fine Wine Market Report: July 2019 Market Decode

The JF Tobias July Market Decode has been released, containing all the latest JF Tobias insight and analysis on fine wine market performance. It remains the best independent analysis, and helps our clients to stay up to date with what is happening in the fine wine market, and understand fine wine market performance.

  • 90% increase in people looking to sell fine wine, against last month
  • Enquiries to sell totaling: £1,924,021 submitted to JF Tobias in the past month
  • HK sale share recedes by 11%, UK sale share increases by 2%, US by 1%
  • No-deal Brexit fears keep Sterling subdued

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July Market Decode

Sterling falls to lowest levels in two years

Sterling has fallen towards its lowest levels in more than two years, against the backdrop of a worsening economic outlook and rising fears about a no-deal Brexit with a new Prime Minister.

Boris Johnson, the frontrunner, has said Britain will leave the European Union on Oct. 31 deal or no deal. But he has also said there is only one chance in a million of leaving without an agreement in place.

Such uncertainty is, in the short term, good news for the fine wine market. A weak Sterling has mitigated the poor demand from a Chinese market still reeling from the trade war.
Heading into July then, the fine wine market remains delicately poised, if just optimistic enough for the Liv-ex 1000 to rise for the first time in 2019. Despite this, a real risk of downside continues.

Resumption of trade talks does not affect sentiment

Trade has, despite positive overtones, remained dovish throughout June. Although a weak pound has helped to mitigate weak demand, HK sale share still receded 11% on last month.

Off-vintages and the Second Growth’s continue to trade fairly, whilst the First Growth’s and Burgundy producers are still struggling. Despite the market widely cheering a resumption of talks between Washington and Beijing, this has yet to affect demand in Asia.

With both sides preparing for a protracted battle as key issues remain far from settled, if anything the hurdles to an agreement look higher now than they did when talks broke down in May. Suggestions that another long stalemate lies ahead do not look wrong.



Access the Full Report:

July Market Decode

At JF Tobias, we pride ourselves on being the best independent port of call in the fine wine market. If you have any questions about the market report, or would like to talk to someone regarding it, please contact us, and a member of the team will be delighted to assist.

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